Opinion | Take David Ignatius' annual year-end quiz – The Washington Submit

What a protracted, unusual journey this yr has been, to paraphrase the Grateful Lifeless. However because the late, lamented William Safire wrote in certainly one of his year-end “Workplace Pool” quizzes, “In the event you accurately predicted every thing that occurred … you belong in jail.”
As we head into 2022, place your bets for the New Yr in a Safire-inspired multiple-choice quiz. Successful prize for any reader who will get all solutions proper will probably be a go to from a three-letter company. My picks on the backside.
1) North Korea’s Kim Jong Un will have a good time 2022 by: a) Demanding removing of Treasury sanctions on his April 26 Animation Studio so he can resume cartoon exports; b) Launching Jeff Bezos into area; c) Partnering with Donald Trump to develop “Mar-a-Lago East” on the Sea of Japan; d) Conducting his seventh nuclear explosion and testing an ICBM that may attain the continental United States.
2) Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman will shock the world by: a) Taking the throne after King Salman’s dying and starting what might be a half-century reign; b) Providing clemency and liberating the kids of former counterterrorism officer Saad Aljabri he has been holding hostage; c) Assembly President Biden and halting cooperation with China on ballistic missiles; d) Becoming a member of the Abraham Accords and opening a Saudi industrial workplace in Tel Aviv; e) Shaving off his beard.
3) The Ukraine disaster will enter a brand new section in 2022 as: a) Russian cyberattacks disable the Ukrainian energy grid and tons of freeze due to shortages of gasoline and coal; b) Donetsk separatists backed by Russia overrun Ukrainian entrance strains at Avdiivka and enraged rightwing nationalists kill pro-Russian MPs in Kyiv; c) Russia, after creating chaos in Ukraine, invades to “restore order”; d) Russian forces progressively retreat from Ukraine’s border because the West gives restricted safety ensures.
4) The 42-year-old “Iran disaster” enters a decisive stage as: a) Supreme Chief Ali Khamenei’s dying triggers a succession wrestle between army and clergy; b) Prodded by Russia and China, Iran reaches an interim nuclear take care of the USA that reverses nuclear progress in change for sanctions reduction; c) Israel launches a army strike in opposition to Iran’s nuclear infrastructure after the U.S. midterm elections; d) Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates invite Iran to fulfill with the Gulf Cooperation Council and open diplomatic relations.
5) The yr’s most disruptive know-how will probably be: a) Operational quantum computing that unlocks all present and historic encrypted knowledge; b) Reinvention of the World Broad Internet as “Internet 3,” utilizing safe blockchain know-how; c) Issuance of dependable cryptocurrencies by China, the European Union and different nations, additionally utilizing blockchain; d) Undetectable “deep pretend” strategies that have an effect on monetary markets and elections.
6) House warfare turns into a red-hot army matter in 2022 as: a) The U.S. House Drive disables a seemingly “hostile” overseas satellite tv for pc based mostly on what proves an inaccurate intelligence evaluation; b) Nationwide Reconnaissance Workplace floor stations are hit by disabling cyberattacks leaving the USA “blind and deaf” in area for weeks; c) China demonstrates an antisatellite weapon able to destroying satellites in geosynchronous orbits; d) America declassifies details about “beautiful” capabilities developed through the Chilly Struggle — inflicting Russia and China to revise safety plans.
7) Essentially the most energetic Republican campaigner with the very best ballot numbers through the 2022 midterm marketing campaign will probably be: a) former president Donald Trump; b) Sen. Ted Cruz; c) Sen. Josh Hawley; d) Rep. Liz Cheney; e) former secretary of state Mike Pompeo.
8) Topping the checklist of Democrats looking for the presidential nomination if Biden decides to not run will probably be: a) Vice President Harris; b) Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg; c) MSNBC host Joe Scarborough; d) Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez; e) Republican crossover and former consultant Will Hurd.
9) The U.S. secretary of state in December 2022 will probably be: a) Secretary Antony Blinken; b) Deputy Secretary Wendy Sherman; c) Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo; d) CIA Director William J. Burns; e) Sen. Christopher A. Coons.
10) The “black swan” disaster of 2022 will probably be: a) Backlash in opposition to President Xi Jinping’s unprecedented third five-year time period from senior occasion and army leaders; b) International financial downturn brought on by a brand new covid variant that’s as transmissible as omicron however extra vaccine-resistant; c) a devastating ransomware assault in opposition to Taiwan’s chipmaking big TMSC by Chinese language “non-public” hackers; d) Russia’s candidate wins management of the Worldwide Telecommunication Union and imposes new guidelines that support censorship and curtail freedom; e) Saudi Arabia begins promoting oil in Chinese language yuan, along with {dollars}.
Put down your wagers, people. You’ll be able to’t win in the event you don’t play, as Safire appreciated to say. My solutions: 1) d; 2) d; 3) a, b, c; 4) b, d; 5) c; 6) c; 7) e; 8) Moot: Biden will run; 9) a; 10) e.